Greetings player friends, it’s Chris Bengel for Tom Fornelli this Monday because he’s in Indianapolis for Alabama against Georgia tonight. However, even if Tom isn’t around, he’ll never leave you out in the cold at one of the biggest sporting nights of the year.
With that in mind, here are Tom’s best bets for Monday’s college football playoff national championship game.
As Tom mentions, this is a tough game with a handicap. They are the two best teams in college football and they have shown it throughout the season. They are both so talented on either side of football and it is really hard to pick a favorite. For one thing, it’s hard to bet against Nick Saban and the power of a roster that the Crimson Tide has. On the flip side, it’s tough to beat a team twice in a season – and Georgia arguably have the most dominant defense in college football.
Personally, I think there is more value on a number of prop bets and I have one for you, with some NBA action just below. Let’s dive into the pickaxes.
All Eastern times and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The hot ticket
??Alabama vs. Georgia, 8 p.m. | Television: ESPN
The Pick: Jameson Williams Over 110.5 receiving yards (-110): As I mentioned, there is a lot of value in many of the incidental bets for Monday’s national title game. This is the one that I am very confident will cash for us. Alabama star wide receiver Jameson Williams is one of the most electric playmakers in the country and he’s shown it time and time again.
Throughout the 2021 season, Williams averaged 107.6 yards per game and recorded at least 123 yards in five of his last eight games. In his last seven games, Williams has recorded at least six receptions and the targets have been plentiful since fellow star John Metchie ended his season with a torn ACL. So, 110.5 receiving yards is a very high number, but, given Williams’ big play potential, it’s a number he can easily overshadow.
Key trend: Williams has recorded at least 123 receiving yards in five of his last eight games
Bucks at Hornets, 7 p.m. | Television: NBA TV
Latest odds: under 236
The choice: Less than 235.5 points (-110): – It’s no secret that the Bucks and Hornets are two of the most dangerous offensives in the league. The Hornets enter Monday’s game averaging 115.5 points per game, which is good for second place in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Bucks are averaging 112.1 points per game, which is just behind the Hornets for third-place finish in the league.
Of course, these offenses have no problem putting a ton of points on the board, but that total is just too high for me.
In the Bucks’ last four road games, the under is 4-0 when they face a team with a home winning record. The Hornets are 11-5 at home this season, and both teams totaled 220 points in a 114-106 Hornets win over the Bucks on Saturday. Pace of play is certainly a huge factor for the Hornets as they lead a fast attack. This one might be a bit close to being outdated, but in the end I believe it is correct too high a number.
Key trend: The under is 6-1 in the Hornets’ last seven games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game
76ers at the Rockets, 8 p.m. | Television: NBA.TV
The choice: Joel Embiid more than 45.5 points, rebounds and assists (-110) – In the absence of Ben Simmons this season, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid carried the team on his back. Entering Monday, Embiid has high averages of 26.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while also setting a career-high 38.9% out of three. In his last eight games, Embiid has collected at least 46 points, rebounds and assists in five of those competitions. Plus, Philadelphia has won seven of those games, so the gap to the Sixers at -10 points doesn’t bother me either.
During Embiid’s recent success, he also dominated the Rockets. Last Monday, Embiid absolutely abused them to the tune of 31 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. The Sixers star logged in on 12 of 20 shots from the field and only pierced one in three, so he was able to do most of his damage in the paint. Philadelphia also won the game with 20 points, so even if Embiid doesn’t play somewhere in the 40-minute window, he should still have plenty of opportunities to get around that number.
Key trend: Embiid topped 46 points, rebounds and assists in four of his last six games