Scientists have often changed their minds during the pandemic. But now they unanimously assure you that the virus will run out of breath in the spring.
A year ago hardly anyone expected that the Covid-19 epidemic would bring us numerous postponements, ghost races or limited visitor numbers, travel and contact restrictions (this is how lockdowns and shutdowns are described today), because politics kept it It goes without saying that people would regard the vaccinations as a «game changer» and thus create the desired herd immunity.
But it also shows after two years: The virologists, epidemiologists, pandemic experts and the scientists’ forecast models for the infection process often looked very contradictory. The virus containment measures in the different continents, countries and regions were correspondingly contradictory.
Even today, different regulations apply to every drive through three countries over 500 km. Even today, the quarantine regulations last five, seven, ten, twelve or fourteen days. Even today, no one knows exactly how many antibodies one is no longer infectious with and can no longer be infected with.
The 2021 season was also badly affected
But the world has changed: The factory teams of Pierer Mobility with the brands KTM, Husqvarna and GASGAS are currently doing mandatory antigen tests for all team members and drivers every day at the Dakar rally.
Top officials like Carmelo Ezpeleta, CEO of MotoGP promoter Dorna Sports SL, assumed that the 2021 racing season could go ahead properly, and he ruled out double events. But the confidence did not last long, the season then began with two grands prix in Doha / Qatar.
But at least the MotoGP World Championship brought 2021. 18 events came about, in 2020 there were only 14. There were two races outside of Europe – in Qatar and Texas, in 2020 never.
In 2019, there will still be 21 races in Formula 1, one year later. Because of pandemic 17, 22 Grands Prix were held last season, and 23 should be in 2022.
But that will all depend on the prevalence of Omikron and whether we can get even more insight into the Greek alphabet after the variants Alpha and Delta.
The Covid-19 epidemic has at least increased our medical knowledge. I now know the difference between vaccine and drug. I know that there is a difference between infection and illness, that the epidemic is called Covid-19 and the virus is called SARS-CoV2 and that quarantine is derived from the French “la quarantaine” and therefore not with “Kw” in German, but is spoken to with K. What is meant is the number of days, namely forty, that a ship with suspicious animals, goods or supposedly infected people once had to hold out near the port to prevent the plague from spreading. Originally, the Italians introduced quarantine as early as the 14th century. One spoke of the «quaranta giorni».
We learned what excess mortality means, and I heard the term deoxiribonucleic acid for the first time since my chemistry or physics class. I now know that mRNA is known as messenger ribonucleic acid and have learned that there is no need to fear the word “dead vaccine” from Novovax or Valneva.
But actually this medical training can remain stolen from me, because we all long for the new normal, without masks, without distance rules, without technical terms such as PCR (aka “polymerase chain reaction”) and without “servere acute respiratory syndrome”, or SARS for short.
But I’m afraid we’ll have to wait until next autumn. The omens for the first months of 2022 are not particularly promising at the moment, as much as we wish for the pre-Covid period of 2019.
We have learned that football stadiums in many countries will have to remain empty again for the time being, and the US Supercross Championship in 2022 will also take place without an audience.
China has just sent the city of Xi’an, with a population of 13 million, into strict lockdown only because 63 people there tested positive. Within 24 hours, 8 million people were subjected to a PCR test there.
After all, the majority of humanity has learned in just under two years how to curb the spread of the virus.
In April 2020 there were hardly any tests, but people prepared themselves for the pandemic by buying hamster toilet paper.
In the last two weeks, some well-known virologists have credibly assured us that the omicron variant could be the last mutant of the virus, that he is running out of breath because too many hosts have been protected by vaccinations or have recovered and because the human immune systems are now excellent the SARS-CoV2 attacks are prepared.
As an optimist, I believe the scientists’ assurances that there will be a fifth wave, that everything will be better in spring and that herd immunity and contamination will be achieved in this country in autumn.
When some politicians tried to convince us in the summer of 2021 that the pandemic had been overcome, I was skeptical. Because in Germany and Upper Austria there were elections, in Switzerland a referendum. So the politicians needed reports of success.
The bat will soon no longer play a role
Even after two years of pandemic, the scientists are becoming smarter every day and currently have to change their opinions regularly because the facts are constantly being turned upside down.
But almost everyone of us now knows people who have tested positive in the last few months, but described mild courses or remained symptom-free, even at the age of 70.
Mankind has already survived a number of epidemics or learned to live with them; it will also work with Covid-19.
The fifth wave will be broken by April or May at the latest. Maybe it won’t get as bad as feared if the authorities take the right steps.
What is three months in a human life?
During this period I limit myself now. It is enough that a Chinese bat badly affected our lives for two years.
We certainly mustn’t let such horrible cattle and their unrivaled viral load get us down.
As a teenager, I successfully avoided any compulsory vaccination (smallpox, measles, polio and so on) because the epidemic threat seemed less to me than my fear of the bite.
In 2021 I had a lot more respect for the oxygen machines and the intensive care units than for the three vaccinations.
It’s no secret that bad news tends to sell better than good news in the media.
Nevertheless, I now claim: In September 2022 we will consider Covid-19 to be fly shit in the pub.
When Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson said this in April 2020, they acted with gross negligence.
Now I think such an announcement is credible.
Good for humanity, good for the economy and our coexistence, good for motorsport.
Happy New Year. Stay healthy!